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Illinois got a nice win on the road at Nebraska, who, despite their record, are a dangerous team that no one wants to play in the Big 10 tourney. Because of this win, Illinois replaces California in today's bracket and all of a sudden the PAC 12 may only be a 3-bid league. USC lost at Arizona State and finish up with the Washington schools. Neither of those games will give them an RPI boosting win. USC is lacking in "good" wins, they have a few, but others in their seed range have more. I feel a run in the PAC12 tourney may be needed as other teams are passing them. Cincinnati lost at UCF but don't fall, yet. they are close to the 6-line for me but not sure any of the 6 seeds warrant the 5 line yet. Michigan State has locked their spot in the bracket I think, their next 3 games will be against good competition so if they lose out, their resume will still be better than those further down the bracket. Butler won at Xavier, who is nearing worrisome territory after losing five in a row. Butler is very close to the 2 line for me and I won't be surprised if they get there this week.

PLEASE NOTE - My projections are based on at-large chances, so only conference leaders from 1-bid conferences are not placed in a First Four game.  Until a team wins the conference tournament, they are not officially a lock and can be placed in a First Four game or even out for multi-bid conferences.

DISCLAIMER: From Wikipedia - Bracketology is the process of predicting the field of college basketball participants in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, named as such because it is commonly used to fill in tournament brackets for the postseason. It incorporates some method of predicting what the NCAA Selection Committee will use as its Ratings Percentage Index in order to determine at-large (non-conference winning) teams to complete the field of 68 teams, and, to seed the field by ranking all teams from first through sixty-eighth. Bracketology also encompasses the process of predicting the winners of each of the brackets. In recent years the concept of Bracketology has been applied to areas outside of basketball..

The part above that is in bold - this is what I do. If you choose to use my picks to try and win your office pool, then it's your own fault for doing so. I stink when it comes to doing that and make no secret about it. Madness is Madness, it rules, and no one gets them all right.

Last updated 02/27/2017 04:45 AM Central Time 

Seeds

Seed East - New York Midwest - Kansas City South - Memphis West - San Jose
1 Villanova 27-3   Kansas 25-3   North Carolina 25-5   Oregon 26-4  
2 Florida State 23-6   Louisville 23-6   Baylor 23-6   Gonzaga 29-1  
3 Arizona 26-4   UCLA 26-3   Butler 23-6   Kentucky 24-5  
4 West Virginia 23-6   Purdue 23-6   Florida 23-6   Duke 22-7  
5 Minnesota 22-7   Virginia 19-9   Notre Dame 22-7   Cincinnati 25-4  
6 Wisconsin 22-7   Oklahoma State 20-9   Iowa State 19-9   Creighton 22-7  
7 South Carolina 21-8   SMU 25-4   Miami-Fla 20-8   Maryland 22-7  
8 Michigan State 18-11 Dayton 23-5   Michigan 19-10   Saint Mary's 26-3  
9 VCU 23-6   Arkansas 22-7   Xavier 18-11 Virginia Tech 20-8  
10 Providence 18-11   Northwestern 20-9   Mid Tennessee State 25-4 Syracuse 17-13  
11 Seton Hall 18-10   Marquette 17-11 Vanderbilt 16-13/Illinois 17-12 Illinois State 25-5  
12 Nevada 23-6   Wichita State 27-4/USC 21-8   Texas Arlington 22-6   UNC-Wilmington 26-5  
13 Vermont 26-5   Valparaiso 24-7   Princeton 19-6   Monmouth 26-5  
14 Bucknell 23-8   UNC-Ashville 23-8   East Tenn. State 24-6   Belmont 22-5  
15 FGCU 23-7   Akron 23-6   CSU Bakersfield 21-7   Texas Southern 17-11  
16 UC Irvine 17-13/Mt. St. Mary's 16-15   North Dakota 18-8/New Orleans 17-10   NC Central 22-6   South Dakota 21-10  
                 
Last 4 in - Vanderbilt, Illinois, Wichita State, USC  
First 4 out - California, Georgia, Rhode Island, Clemson  
Moving In - Illinois  
Moving out - California  
Others considered for at-large bids -  Wake Forest, Tennessee, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia Tech      
On Life Support - Pittsburgh, Houston, Ole Miss, TCU, Kansas State, Alabama      
No longer considered for at-large bid - UConn, Texas, Charleston, New Mexico, Boise State, LaSalle, Davidson, Chattanooga, Saint Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, BYU, Oklahoma, Charleston, Nebraska, Temple, North Carolina State, Stanford, Nevada, Texas A&M, Memphis, Utah, Auburn, Texas Tech, Georgetown, Penn State      
Multi bid conferences - ACC (9), Big 10 (8), Big East (7), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), PAC 12 (4), A-10 (2), AAC - (2), MVC (2), WCC (2)  
Leaders or highest RPI from projected 1-bid conferences - (22 total)America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - FGCU, Big Sky - North Dakota, Big South - UNC-Ashville, Big West - UC Irvine, CAA - UNC-Wilmington, C-USA - Mid Tennessee State, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, MWC - Nevada, Northeast - Mount Saint Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennessee State, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota, Sun Belt - Texas Arlington, WAC - CSU Bakersfield      
 
Banned from participating - Hawaii, Southern Mississippi, Alcorn State, Savannah State, Northern Colorado  
Transition Schools, ineligible for the tourney - Abilene Christian (Southland), Grand Canyon (WAC), Incarnate Word (Southland), Massachusetts-Lowell (American East)  
Teams in Blue are officially IN the tournament.
Teams in Black are LOCKS for the tournament as of today (Bold faced for 1-bid leagues - league leader or highest RPI chosen for now) 
Teams in Red are on the bubble or have work left to do

 


Bracket

East - New York     South - Memphis  
Buffalo   Greenville
1 Villanova 27-3     1 North Carolina 25-5  
16 UC Irvine 17-13/Mt. St. Mary's 16-15     16 NC Central 22-6  
8 Michigan State 18-11   8 Michigan 19-10  
9 VCU 23-6     9 Xavier 18-11
Milwaukee   Orlando
5 Minnesota 22-7     5 Notre Dame 22-7  
12 Nevada 23-6     12 Texas Arlington 22-6  
13 Vermont 26-5     13 Princeton 19-6  
4 West Virginia 23-6     4 Florida 23-6  
Salt Lake City   Indianapolis
3 Arizona 26-4     3 Butler 23-6  
14 Bucknell 23-8     14 East Tenn. State 24-6  
6 Wisconsin 22-7     6 Iowa State 19-9  
11 Seton Hall 18-10     11 Vanderbilt 16-13/Illinois 17-12
Orlando   Tulsa
10 Providence 18-11     10 Mid Tennessee State 25-4
7 South Carolina 21-8     7 Miami-Fla 20-8  
15 FGCU 23-7     15 CSU Bakersfield 21-7  
2 Florida State 23-6     2 Baylor 23-6  
             
West - San Jose     Midwest - Kansas City  
Sacramento   Tulsa
1 Oregon 26-4     1 Kansas 25-3  
16 South Dakota 21-10     16 North Dakota 18-8/New Orleans 17-10  
8 Saint Mary's 26-3     8 Dayton 23-5  
9 Virginia Tech 20-8     9 Arkansas 22-7  
Buffalo   Milwaukee
5 Cincinnati 25-4     5 Virginia 19-9  
12 UNC-Wilmington 26-5     12 Wichita State 27-4/USC 21-8  
13 Monmouth 26-5     13 Valparaiso 24-7  
4 Duke 22-7     4 Purdue 23-6  
Greenville   Sacramento
3 Kentucky 24-5     3 UCLA 26-3  
14 Belmont 22-5     14 UNC-Ashville 23-8  
6 Creighton 22-7     6 Oklahoma State 20-9  
11 Illinois State 25-5     11 Marquette 17-11
Salt Lake City   Indianapolis
10 Syracuse 17-13     10 Northwestern 20-9  
7 Maryland 22-7     7 SMU 25-4  
15 Texas Southern 17-11     15 Akron 23-6  
2 Gonzaga 29-1     2 Louisville 23-6  

Match-ups
Seed East - New York Midwest - Kansas City South - Memphis West - San Jose
1 Villanova 27-3   Kansas 25-3   North Carolina 25-5   Oregon 26-4  
16 UC Irvine 17-13/Mt. St. Mary's 16-15   North Dakota 18-8/New Orleans 17-10   NC Central 22-6   South Dakota 21-10  
8 Michigan State 18-11 Dayton 23-5   Michigan 19-10   Saint Mary's 26-3  
9 VCU 23-6   Arkansas 22-7   Xavier 18-11 Virginia Tech 20-8  
12 Nevada 23-6   Wichita State 27-4/USC 21-8   Texas Arlington 22-6   UNC-Wilmington 26-5  
5 Minnesota 22-7   Virginia 19-9   Notre Dame 22-7   Cincinnati 25-4  
13 Vermont 26-5   Valparaiso 24-7   Princeton 19-6   Monmouth 26-5  
4 West Virginia 23-6   Purdue 23-6   Florida 23-6   Duke 22-7  
3 Arizona 26-4   UCLA 26-3   Butler 23-6   Kentucky 24-5  
14 Bucknell 23-8   UNC-Ashville 23-8   East Tenn. State 24-6   Belmont 22-5  
6 Wisconsin 22-7   Oklahoma State 20-9   Iowa State 19-9   Creighton 22-7  
11 Seton Hall 18-10   Marquette 17-11 Vanderbilt 16-13/Illinois 17-12 Illinois State 25-5  
10 Providence 18-11   Northwestern 20-9   Mid Tennessee State 25-4 Syracuse 17-13  
7 South Carolina 21-8   SMU 25-4   Miami-Fla 20-8   Maryland 22-7  
15 FGCU 23-7   Akron 23-6   CSU Bakersfield 21-7   Texas Southern 17-11  
2 Florida State 23-6   Louisville 23-6   Baylor 23-6   Gonzaga 29-1  

These projections are based on how I think the committee will make their selections, not how I would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.  If you have any questions or comments about these predictions, if you find any errors, or if you just want to talk hoops feel free to email me.  Please note this is for entertainment purposes only. Yes, W.A.G. stands for Wild Ass Guess.  Thanks and enjoy.



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