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Since I posted my last bracket on 12/4, there has been quite a lot of upsets and surprises, so much so that I felt I needed to update this thing. I'm still at a point in the season where my bracket is based on a combination of results and potential. I do use the RPI as a guide, not a bible, and it hasn't "settled in" just yet. Many teams are near where they will end up, but many still are not. Conference play will sort all of that out. I honestly believe at this point, there are approximately 70 teams vying for the 36 at-large spots. That may seem like a lot, but it's really not. Some teams I'm keeping on my watch list even though I really think they have no chance (Georgia Tech?). They fact that they play in such a tough, deep conference affords them multiple opportunities for big wins. I'm thinking that many Big 10 teams might be done as that conference is having a down year, which limits chances for big wins. My gut says teams like Iowa and Northwestern are probably NIT bound. Kinda weird to say that with only about 1/3 of the season in the books. Another thing that might hurt them, several mid-majors are making their case for possible at-large births, and even single digit seeds. The MWC has been the main one I'm keeping an eye one, with the MVC and C-USA not too far behind. We get a bit of a break over the holidays, and then buckle up, Winter is will be here, and then March before you know it.

Merry Christmas everyone!!!

PLEASE NOTE - My projections are based on at-large chances, so only conference leaders from 1-bid conferences are not placed in a First Four game.  Until a team wins the conference tournament, they are not officially a lock and can be placed in a First Four game or even out for multi-bid conferences.

DISCLAIMER: From Wikipedia - Bracketology is the process of predicting the field of college basketball participants in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, named as such because it is commonly used to fill in tournament brackets for the postseason. It incorporates some method of predicting what the NCAA Selection Committee will use as its Ratings Percentage Index in order to determine at-large (non-conference winning) teams to complete the field of 68 teams, and, to seed the field by ranking all teams from first through sixty-eighth. Bracketology also encompasses the process of predicting the winners of each of the brackets. In recent years the concept of Bracketology has been applied to areas outside of basketball..

The part above that is in bold - this is what I do. If you choose to use my picks to try and win your office pool, then it's your own fault for doing so. I stink when it comes to doing that and make no secret about it. Madness is Madness, it rules, and no one gets them all right.

Last updated 12/11/2017 05:25 PM Central Time 

Seeds

Seed East - Boston Midwest - Omaha South - Atlanta West - Los Angeles
1 Michigan State 9-1   Duke 11-1   Villanova 10-0   Arizona State 9-0  
2 North Carolina 9-1   Texas A&M 8-1   Miami 8-0   Kentucky 8-1  
3 West Virginia 9-1   Kansas 7-2   Wichita State 8-1   Xavier 9-1  
4 Seton Hall 8-1   Florida State 9-0   Virginia 8-1   Notre Dame 8-2  
5 Baylor 7-2   TCU 10-0   Gonzaga 7-2   Florida 6-3  
6 Tennessee 7-1   Purdue 10-2   Texas Tech 7-1   Texas 6-2  
7 Minnesota 8-3   Creighton 7-2   Arizona 7-3   Louisville 6-2  
8 Northern Iowa 8-2   Alabama 7-3   Rhode Island 5-3   Nevada 8-2  
9 Boise State 9-1   SMU 7-3   UNLV 8-2   Arkansas 7-2  
10 Georgia 7-1   Iowa State 7-2   Missouri 8-2   Mid Tennessee 7-1  
11 Syracuse 8-1   Cincinnati 7-2   Providence 7-3   NC State 8-2  
12 South Dakota State 8-4   Murray State 6-1   Temple 6-2/Saint John's 8-2   UCF 6-3/UCLA 7-2  
13 Texas Arlington 7-3   Vermont 6-4   Towson 10-1   Central Michigan 8-1  
14 FGCU 7-4   Portland State 8-2   New Mexico State 7-2   SFA 9-1  
15 Navy 7-3   Milwaukee 6-4   Furman 7-3   Penn 7-4  
16 UNC-Ashville 6-4/Iona 4-4   Wagner 7-1   NC A&T 5-4/PV A&M 2-7   UCSB 8-2  
                 
Last 4 in - UCLA, Saint John's, Temple, UCF  
First 4 out - Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Clemson, Houston  
Moving In  
Moving out  
Others considered for at-large bids (no particular order) - Penn State, USC, Illinois, Louisiana Tech, Houston, Connecticut, St. Bonaventure, Davidson, Western Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Iowa, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Michigan, South Carolina, Wake Forest, Valparaiso, Colorado, ODU, Utah, Tulane, Boston College, LaSalle, VCU, Rutgers, Nebraska, Indiana, Northwestern, BYU, Wisconsin, Georgia Southern, Saint Mary's, San Diego, Vanderbilt, Washington State, LSU, Loyola-Chicago, Bradley, Missouri State, Auburn, Butler, Southern Illinois, Oregon, Maryland, Belmont, Wyoming, Dayton, Buffalo, Ball State, Fresno State, Evansville      
On Life Support -       
No longer considered for at-large bid -       
Multi bid conferences - ACC (9), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), AAC (5), Pac 12 (3), Big 10 (3), MWC (3)  
Leaders or highest RPI from projected 1-bid conferences - (24 total)America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - FGCU, Big Sky - Portland State, Big South - UNC-Ashville, Big West - UCSB, CAA - Towson, CUSA - Mid Tennessee, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Penn, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC A&T, MVC - Northern Iowa, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Navy, Southern - Furman, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Prairie View A&M, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Texas Arlington, WAC - New Mexico State, WCC - Gonzaga      
                 
Banned from participating - Alabama A&M, Grambling, Savannah State, SE Missouri State  
Transition Schools, ineligible for the tourney      
                 
Teams in Blue are officially IN the tournament.  
Teams in Black are LOCKS for the tournament as of today (Bold faced for 1-bid leagues - league leader or highest RPI chosen for now)   
Teams in Red are on the bubble or have work left to do  

 


Bracket

South - Atlanta     West - Los Angeles  
Pittsburgh   San Diego
1 Villanova 10-0     1 Arizona State 9-0  
16 NC A&T 5-4/PV A&M 2-7     16 UCSB 8-2  
8 Rhode Island 5-3     8 Nevada 8-2  
9 UNLV 8-2     9 Arkansas 7-2  
Boise   San Diego
5 Gonzaga 7-2     5 Florida 6-3  
12 Temple 6-2/Saint John's 8-2     12 UCF 6-3/UCLA 7-2  
13 Towson 10-1     13 Central Michigan 8-1  
4 Virginia 8-1     4 Notre Dame 8-2  
Dallas   Detroit
3 Wichita State 8-1     3 Xavier 9-1  
14 New Mexico State 7-2     14 SFA 9-1  
6 Texas Tech 7-1     6 Texas 6-2  
11 Providence 7-3     11 NC State 8-2  
Nashville   Nashville
10 Missouri 8-2     10 Mid Tennessee 7-1  
7 Arizona 7-3     7 Louisville 6-2  
15 Furman 7-3     15 Penn 7-4  
2 Miami 8-0     2 Kentucky 8-1  
             
East - Boston     Midwest - Omaha  
Detroit   Charlotte
1 Michigan State 9-1     1 Duke 11-1  
16 UNC-Ashville 6-4/Iona 4-4     16 Wagner 7-1  
8 Northern Iowa 8-2     8 Alabama 7-3  
9 Boise State 9-1     9 SMU 7-3  
Wichita   Boise
5 Baylor 7-2     5 TCU 10-0  
12 South Dakota State 8-4     12 Murray State 6-1  
13 Texas Arlington 7-3     13 Vermont 6-4  
4 Seton Hall 8-1     4 Florida State 9-0  
Pittsburgh   Wichita
3 West Virginia 9-1     3 Kansas 7-2  
14 FGCU 7-4     14 Portland State 8-2  
6 Tennessee 7-1     6 Purdue 10-2  
11 Syracuse 8-1     11 Cincinnati 7-2  
Charlotte   Dallas
10 Georgia 7-1     10 Iowa State 7-2  
7 Minnesota 8-3     7 Creighton 7-2  
15 Navy 7-3     15 Milwaukee 6-4  
2 North Carolina 9-1     2 Texas A&M 8-1  

Match-ups
Seed East - Boston Midwest - Omaha South - Atlanta West - Los Angeles
1 Michigan State 9-1   Duke 11-1   Villanova 10-0   Arizona State 9-0  
16 UNC-Ashville 6-4/Iona 4-4   Wagner 7-1   NC A&T 5-4/PV A&M 2-7   UCSB 8-2  
8 Northern Iowa 8-2   Alabama 7-3   Rhode Island 5-3   Nevada 8-2  
9 Boise State 9-1   SMU 7-3   UNLV 8-2   Arkansas 7-2  
12 South Dakota State 8-4   Murray State 6-1   Temple 6-2/Saint John's 8-2   UCF 6-3/UCLA 7-2  
5 Baylor 7-2   TCU 10-0   Gonzaga 7-2   Florida 6-3  
13 Texas Arlington 7-3   Vermont 6-4   Towson 10-1   Central Michigan 8-1  
4 Seton Hall 8-1   Florida State 9-0   Virginia 8-1   Notre Dame 8-2  
3 West Virginia 9-1   Kansas 7-2   Wichita State 8-1   Xavier 9-1  
14 FGCU 7-4   Portland State 8-2   New Mexico State 7-2   SFA 9-1  
6 Tennessee 7-1   Purdue 10-2   Texas Tech 7-1   Texas 6-2  
11 Syracuse 8-1   Cincinnati 7-2   Providence 7-3   NC State 8-2  
10 Georgia 7-1   Iowa State 7-2   Missouri 8-2   Mid Tennessee 7-1  
7 Minnesota 8-3   Creighton 7-2   Arizona 7-3   Louisville 6-2  
15 Navy 7-3   Milwaukee 6-4   Furman 7-3   Penn 7-4  
2 North Carolina 9-1   Texas A&M 8-1   Miami 8-0   Kentucky 8-1  

These projections are based on how I think the committee will make their selections, not how I would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.  If you have any questions or comments about these predictions, if you find any errors, or if you just want to talk hoops feel free to email me.  Please note this is for entertainment purposes only. Yes, W.A.G. stands for Wild Ass Guess.  Thanks and enjoy.



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