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What to do with Stanford? Metrics aren't impressive, but resume is almost tourney worthy. Will dig deeper tomorrow (later today! sigh).  WCC brought it for a couple games tonight, could Santa Clara move up and be a 5th team from that conference? I don't think so, but it's college hoops! MADNESS!!!

 PLEASE NOTE - My projections are based on at-large chances, so only conference leaders from 1-bid conferences are not placed in a First Four game.  Until a team wins the conference tournament, they are not officially a lock and can be placed in a First Four game or even out for multi-bid conferences.

DISCLAIMER: From Wikipedia - Bracketology is the process of predicting the field of college basketball participants in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, named as such because it is commonly used to fill in tournament brackets for the postseason. It incorporates some method of predicting what the NCAA Selection Committee will use as its NET in order to determine at-large (non-conference winning) teams to complete the field of 68 teams, and, to seed the field by ranking all teams from first through sixty-eighth. Bracketology also encompasses the process of predicting the winners of each of the brackets. In recent years the concept of Bracketology has been applied to areas outside of basketball..

The part above that is in bold - this is what I do. If you choose to use my picks to try and win your office pool, then it's your own fault for doing so. I stink when it comes to doing that and make no secret about it. Madness is Madness, it rules, and no one gets them all right.

Last updated 01/28/2022 12:14 AM Central Time 

Seeds

Seed East - Philadelphia  Midwest - Chicago  South - San Antonio West - San Francisco 
1 Kansas 17-2   Auburn 19-1   Baylor 18-2   Gonzaga 16-2  
2 Duke 16-3   UCLA 15-2   Purdue 17-3   Arizona 16-2  
3 Kentucky 16-4   Wisconsin 16-3   Texas Tech 15-5   Michigan St 154  
4 Ohio St 13-4   Providence 17-2   Houston 17-2   LSU 16-4  
5 Villanova 15-5   Illinois 14-5   Connecticut 14-4 ↑ Iowa State 15-5  
6 Marquette 15-6   Xavier 14-5   USC 17-3 ↓ Tennessee 14-5  
7 BYU 17-5   Iowa 14-6   Colorado St 16-1   Davidson 16-3  
8 Creighton 12-6   Seton Hall 12-7   Alabama 13-7   Texas 15-5  
9 Loyola-Chicago 16-3   Oklahoma 13-7   St Mary's 16-4 ↑ Miami 15-5  
10 San Diego St 11-5   San Francisco 16-5 ↓ TCU 13-4   Indiana 15-5  
11 Boise St 16-4   West Virginia 13-6   Wake Forest 17-4   Murray St 19-2  
12 Belmont 16-5/Oregon 12-7   Iona 17-3   UAB 17-4   Wyoming 15-3/Florida State 13-6  
13 South Dakota St 18-4   Chattanooga 17-4   New Mexico St 16-3   Toledo 16-4  
14 Vermont 14-4   Towson 15-6   Oakland 15-5   Wagner 13-2  
15 Liberty 14-6   CS Fullerton 12-5   Weber St 15-5   Princeton 15-3  
16 Arkansas St 13-5   Southern 11-8/Army 12-9   Norfolk St 14-4/Longwood 14-5   Texas A&M CC 15-5  
Last 4 in - Wyoming, Florida St., Oregon, Belmont  
First 4 out - North Carolina, Texas A&M, Stanford, SMU  
Next 4 out -  Arkansas, Minnesota, Notre Dame, VCU      
Moving in -   
Moving out -   
Others considered for at-large bids - Florida, Cincinnati, Clemson, Dayton, Monmouth, Louisville, Mississippi St, Louisiana Tech, Wichita St,  St Bonaventure, Santa Clara, St Johns,  Colorado, Boise St, Maryland, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Richmond, Memphis, St Louis, Michigan, Ohio,, Virginia, UCF, Missouri St    
On Life Support (but probably dead) - Virginia Tech, Washington St, Rhode Island, Penn St, Rutgers, Drake      
No longer considered for at-large bid (must win conf tourney) - Utah St, Syracuse, DePaul, Northwestern      
Multi bid conferences -  Big 12 (8), Big 10 (7), Big East (7), SEC (5), WCC (4), ACC (4), MWC (4), PAC 12 (4). OVC (2)      
Leaders or highest NET from projected 1-bid conferences - (23 total): A10 - Davidson, AAC - Houston, America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Liberty, Big Sky - Weber St, Big South - Longwood, Big West - CS Fullerton, CAA - Towson, C-USA - UAB, Horizon - Oakland, Ivy League - Princeton, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - Norfolk St., Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago, Northeast - Wagner, Patriot - Army, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Texas A&M CC, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota St, Sun Belt - Arkansas St, WAC - New Mexico St    
Banned - Oklahoma St  
Transition Schools, ineligible for the tourney - Cal Baptist, North Alabama, Merrimack, Dixie State, Tarleton State, Bellarmine, UC San Diego, St Thomas      
COVID-19 -       
Teams in Blue are officially IN the tournament.  
Teams in Black are Virtual LOCKS for the tournament as of today (Bold faced for 1-bid leagues - league leader or highest NET chosen for now)   
Teams in Red have work left to do or need help  

True Seed List

Seed Line Overall Seed Team Seed Line Overall Seed Team Seed Line Overall Seed Team Seed Line Overall Seed Team
1 1 Auburn 5 17 Villanova 9 33 Loyola-Chicago 13 51 Toledo
2 Gonzaga 18 Illinois 34 St Mary's 52 New Mexico St
3 Baylor 19 Iowa St 35 Oklahoma 53 South Dakota St
4 Kansas 20 Connecticut 36 Miami 54 Chattanooga
2 5 Arizona 6 21 Marquette 10 37 San Francisco 14 55 Oakland
6 Purdue 22 USC 38 San Diego St 56 Towson
7 UCLA 23 Xavier 39 TCU 57 Vermont
8 Duke 24 Tennessee 40 Indiana 58 Wagner
3 9 Texas Tech 7 25 BYU 11 41 Murray St 15 59 Princeton
10 Wisconsin 26 Colorado St 42 West Virginia 60 Liberty
11 Kentucky 27 Iowa 43 Boise St 61 Weber St
12 Michigan St 28 Davidson 44 Wake Forest 62 CS Sullerton
4 13 LSU 8 29 Alabama 12 45 Wyoming 16 63 Arkansas St
14 Houston 30 Texas 46 Florida St 64 Texas A&M CC
15 Ohio St 31 Seton Hall 47 Oregon 65 Norfolk St
16 Providence 32 Creighton 48 Belmont 66 Southern
          49 Iona 67 Army
          50 UAB 68 Longwood
          1st 4 out 1 North Carolina Next 4 5 Arkansas
          2 Texas A&M 6 Minnesota
          3 Stanford 7 Notre Dame
          4 SMU 8 VCU

Bracket

South - San Antonio    Midwest - Chicago 
Ft Worth   Indianapolis
1 Baylor 18-2     1 Auburn 19-1  
16 Norfolk St 14-4/Longwood 14-5     16 Southern 11-8/Army 12-9  
8 Alabama 13-7     8 Seton Hall 12-7  
9 St Mary's 16-4 ↑   9 Oklahoma 13-7  
Buffalo   Portland
5 Connecticut 14-4 ↑   5 Illinois 14-5  
12 UAB 17-4     12 Iona 17-3  
13 New Mexico St 16-3     13 Chattanooga 17-4  
4 Houston 17-2     4 Providence 17-2  
Greenville   Milwaukee
3 Texas Tech 15-5     3 Wisconsin 16-3  
14 Oakland 15-5     14 Towson 15-6  
6 USC 17-3 ↓   6 Xavier 14-5  
11 Wake Forest 17-4     11 West Virginia 13-6  
Indianapolis   San Diego
10 TCU 13-4     10 San Francisco 16-5 ↓
7 Colorado St 16-1     7 Iowa 14-6  
15 Weber St 15-5     15 CS Fullerton 12-5  
2 Purdue 17-3     2 UCLA 15-2  
             
East - Philadelphia    West - San Francisco 
Ft Worth   Portland
1 Kansas 17-2     1 Gonzaga 16-2  
16 Arkansas St 13-5     16 Texas A&M CC 15-5  
8 Creighton 12-6     8 Texas 15-5  
9 Loyola-Chicago 16-3     9 Miami 15-5  
Buffalo   Milwaukee
5 Villanova 15-5     5 Iowa State 15-5  
12 Belmont 16-5/Oregon 12-7     12 Wyoming 15-3/Florida State 13-6  
13 South Dakota St 18-4     13 Toledo 16-4  
4 Ohio St 13-4     4 LSU 16-4  
Pittsburgh   Pittsburgh
3 Kentucky 16-4     3 Michigan St 154  
14 Vermont 14-4     14 Wagner 13-2  
6 Marquette 15-6     6 Tennessee 14-5  
11 Boise St 16-4     11 Murray St 19-2  
Greenville   San Diego
10 San Diego St 11-5     10 Indiana 15-5  
7 BYU 17-5     7 Davidson 16-3  
15 Liberty 14-6     15 Princeton 15-3  
2 Duke 16-3     2 Arizona 16-2  
Match-ups
Seed East - Philadelphia  Midwest - Chicago  South - San Antonio West - San Francisco 
1 Kansas 17-2   Auburn 19-1   Baylor 18-2   Gonzaga 16-2  
16 Arkansas St 13-5   Southern 11-8/Army 12-9   Norfolk St 14-4/Longwood 14-5   Texas A&M CC 15-5  
8 Creighton 12-6   Seton Hall 12-7   Alabama 13-7   Texas 15-5  
9 Loyola-Chicago 16-3   Oklahoma 13-7   St Mary's 16-4 ↑ Miami 15-5  
12 Belmont 16-5/Oregon 12-7   Iona 17-3   UAB 17-4   Wyoming 15-3/Florida State 13-6  
5 Villanova 15-5   Illinois 14-5   Connecticut 14-4 ↑ Iowa State 15-5  
13 South Dakota St 18-4   Chattanooga 17-4   New Mexico St 16-3   Toledo 16-4  
4 Ohio St 13-4   Providence 17-2   Houston 17-2   LSU 16-4  
3 Kentucky 16-4   Wisconsin 16-3   Texas Tech 15-5   Michigan St 154  
14 Vermont 14-4   Towson 15-6   Oakland 15-5   Wagner 13-2  
6 Marquette 15-6   Xavier 14-5   USC 17-3 ↓ Tennessee 14-5  
11 Boise St 16-4   West Virginia 13-6   Wake Forest 17-4   Murray St 19-2  
10 San Diego St 11-5   San Francisco 16-5 ↓ TCU 13-4   Indiana 15-5  
7 BYU 17-5   Iowa 14-6   Colorado St 16-1   Davidson 16-3  
15 Liberty 14-6   CS Fullerton 12-5   Weber St 15-5   Princeton 15-3  
2 Duke 16-3   UCLA 15-2   Purdue 17-3   Arizona 16-2  

These projections are based on how I think the committee will make their selections, not how I would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.  If you have any questions or comments about these predictions, if you find any errors, or if you just want to talk hoops feel free to email me.  Please note this is for entertainment purposes only. Yes, W.A.G. stands for Wild Ass Guess.  Thanks and enjoy.

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